By Lê Triều
On the morning of March 12, the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) held its 2026 Executive Committee and Standing Committee Conference and Annual Members’ Meeting. At the event, experts observed that the real estate market has shown clear signs of recovery after a difficult period, but it must continue adjusting toward a sustainable path and take advantage of opportunities to tap into new growth areas.
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On the morning of March 12, the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) held the 2026 Annual Conference of the Standing...
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Speaking at the conference, Dr. Can Van Luc, Member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council and Chief Economist of BIDV, said that Vietnam’s real estate market has moved past its subdued phase over the past year and is gradually recovering, with more active transactions amid a stable macroeconomy and high growth.
Dr. Luc noted that Vietnam’s GDP reached approximately 8.02% in 2025 and is forecast to grow by 9-10% in 2026, laying the groundwork for the 10% growth target for 2026-2030 as the country moves toward a “new era.”
Alongside this, several factors support the real estate market: inflation, the exchange rate and non-performing loans remain under control within permitted thresholds, and fiscal indicators such as the budget deficit, public debt and the Government’s debt service obligations remain within the limits set by the National Assembly.
Beyond the macroeconomic foundation, Dr. Lực said that institutional reform and a more complete legal framework are also an important driver of the market. In recent years, a wide range of new policies and regulations has been issued to remove legal bottlenecks in the real estate market. Over this period, 9 strategic resolutions, 99 laws and resolutions, and 377 decrees related to land and real estate have been issued. Together with the “revolution” in streamlining the government apparatus and improving the business and investment environment, these measures have helped clear many of the economy’s bottlenecks, according to Dr. Lực.
In addition, public investment and infrastructure development are being stepped up and have become an important driver for the market. In 2025, total public investment disbursement is estimated to have exceeded VND 850 trillion. In 2026, the disbursement plan exceeds VND 1,000 trillion, up 17.6% from 2025, with infrastructure accounting for nearly 80% of total public investment.
Notably, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực observed that real estate developers have passed the most difficult point in meeting their financial obligations, and access to capital is gradually improving.
Alongside these advantages, the BIDV Chief Economist also pointed out several challenges that businesses should take note of and adjust for in the period ahead.
First, international reports indicate that property prices in Vietnam are twice as high as residents’ incomes, and an average person would need 30 years to afford a home.
At the same time, the supply-demand imbalance persists, as there are still plenty of high-end and luxury products while social housing is in severe shortage. Therefore, the focus in the coming period should be on developing housing that is affordable for the population.
Another issue is uneven development. Some businesses are performing well with very high profits, while others are struggling, and many have spread their investments too thin across too many projects. This is manageable when the economy is doing well, but when problems arise, such as sharply higher interest rates or international instability, business operations will be significantly affected.
In addition, the construction sector continues to face difficulties, including material shortages, high prices and high bidding costs. Even so, businesses have to hold on.
“In 2026, if the market grows faster than the national average, at around 10-15%, that would already be sustainable,” Dr. Cấn Văn Lực said.
Although the real estate market has shown positive recovery, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực believes its sustainability still needs to be reinforced. In particular, the market should prioritize developing affordable housing for people earning around VND 15-30 million per month.
“According to our research, an appropriate price for this segment is about VND 1.5-3 billion per unit in provincial areas, and around VND 4-5 billion per unit in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,” Dr. Cấn Văn Lực shared.
To develop this segment, Dr. Lực said a comprehensive policy is needed, involving the central budget, local budgets, bank credit, investment funds and other long-term capital sources. Most importantly, a well-structured plan with a clear roadmap must be built to create a housing supply that people can afford.
Another notable topic is capital for the real estate market. Dr. Cấn Văn Lực said Vietnam’s credit growth in 2025 reached about 19%, of which around 24% of outstanding credit went to the real estate sector.
Meanwhile, other fundraising channels such as corporate bonds, the stock market and investment funds have yet to play their full role. As a result, the market still relies heavily on capital from the banking system.
Therefore, in the period ahead, real estate developers need to diversify their funding sources, including issuing bonds, raising capital from investment funds, attracting international capital and developing long-term investment partnership models.
In the period ahead, real estate developers need to diversify their funding sources, including issuing bonds, raising capital from investment funds, attracting international capital and developing long-term investment partnership models.
Speaking at the conference, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said that as the market enters an adjustment phase, several important issues need to be considered in order to guide its development going forward.
First, according to Mr. Chung, the role of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) is becoming increasingly important in the market’s development. Having worked alongside the Association for more than two decades, he believes VNREA is taking on many tasks that matter to the industry’s growth.
Among these, the Association plays five prominent roles: working with state management agencies to improve legal and policy frameworks; providing market reports and information; organizing the Vietnam National Real Estate Awards to honor outstanding businesses; leading the market; and promoting international cooperation.
In addition, from a market perspective, the expert said that after many ups and downs, transit-oriented development (TOD) is now a direction worth prioritizing.
“We have never had such favorable conditions for infrastructure development and site clearance as we do today. This is an opportunity to tap into new growth areas for the real estate market,” Mr. Chung noted.
Regarding the market scenario for 2026, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Kim Chung said adjustments are needed so that the market develops more steadily and avoids repeating the overheated growth seen in some earlier periods.
“In 2026, the market may be affected by many factors, such as rising interest rates, warnings related to real estate credit, oil price fluctuations and developments in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the baseline scenario for the market this year should be a neutral one that aims for stability and avoids ‘euphoric’ growth phases,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Kim Chung shared. He also highlighted two groups of risks to monitor in the coming period: international economic volatility and the impact of domestic policies.
Based on this analysis, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Kim Chung said that as the market enters a phase of adjustment and restructuring, stakeholders need to closely follow developments on the ground so they can respond with appropriate solutions in a timely manner. Stronger coordination and partnership among regulators, the Association and the business community is key to ensuring the market develops in a stable and healthy way.
In particular, market transparency must remain a top priority. At the same time, the market needs to create new product lines suited to development needs in the coming period, especially models tied to infrastructure, urbanization and sustainable development trends.
“The real estate market continues to maintain a positive growth trend, but it needs to be monitored closely and managed prudently to avoid volatility,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Kim Chung said.
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