According to Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, following a booming year in 2025, the real estate market is expected to maintain its growth momentum in 2026, while shifting towards deeper, more substantive development with increasingly pronounced market segmentation.
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1. Real Estate Market in 2025: A "Boom" in Supply
At the 2026 Annual Conference of the Executive Committee and Standing Committee, combined with the Vietnam Real Estate Association's annual members' gathering, held on the morning of March 12, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, presented a report on the real estate market in 2025 and an overview forecast for 2026.
Accordingly, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh stated that supply had truly "boomed" over the past year, with hundreds of projects launched simultaneously nationwide. These included newly approved mega-projects of unprecedented scale, as well as hundreds of projects whose legal obstacles had been resolved, allowing them to resume implementation.
For the full year of 2025, the market recorded approximately more than 150,000 properties offered for sale, representing an increase of over 80% compared to 2024. Of this total, nearly 130,000 were newly launched products, up 88% year-on-year and marking the highest figure recorded during the 2019–2025 period.
Notably, although inventory increased rapidly, this was considered a positive development, as the majority consisted of products currently under development and future residential projects that had already been launched for sale.
A closer examination of the market structure shows that supply in 2025 was relatively evenly distributed across different real estate segments and property types. Specifically, low-rise properties and land plots accounted for approximately 38% of total supply, equivalent to 47,000 products, 2.5 times the 2024 figure. Apartments accounted for the dominant share of 62%, equivalent to more than 80,000 products, doubling the previous year's figure.
Within the apartment segment, products priced above VND 50 million per square meter accounted for 67%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points compared to 2024, thanks to the emergence of new supply at more affordable prices in the former Binh Duong area. The high-end segment accounted for 29%, down 20 percentage points, while the luxury and ultra-luxury segments grew rapidly to reach 38%, an increase of 16 percentage points compared to 2024. The mid-range segment accounted for 33%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year. In the former Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City areas, approximately 85% of newly launched apartments were priced above VND 80 million per square meter.
Regarding demand, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh noted that although demand for owner-occupied housing remained dominant, it was significantly constrained by affordability. As a result, investment demand continued to be the market's primary growth driver.
Real estate investment demand increased significantly in 2025, supported by persistently low interest rates, a marked improvement in supply, as well as sales incentives and extended payment schedules. In addition, investor confidence was reinforced by accelerated transport infrastructure development and an increasingly complete legal framework. The prevailing investment trend was to channel capital into properties that met actual housing needs and offered prices aligned with investors' expectations.
However, from the fourth quarter of 2025, as rising deposit interest rates pushed lending rates upward, investment demand temporarily slowed in certain overheated areas. Nevertheless, no decline in long-term investment demand had been recorded.
As for demand for owner-occupied housing, it remained high, driven by economic growth, urbanization, and the rapid expansion of the middle and upper classes. However, actual purchasing power was affected by rising property prices. Many people, particularly younger buyers, became less motivated to purchase homes as the gap between housing prices and income continued to widen, creating a growing disconnect between sellers' price expectations and buyers' purchasing behavior.
Regarding transaction activity, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh reported that the overall absorption rate of newly launched supply in 2025 reached 68%, equivalent to approximately 88,000 successful transactions. Apartments accounted for the majority, contributing more than 65% of total transactions. This represented a relatively high absorption rate given the numerous challenges facing the economy.
During the first three quarters of 2025, newly launched projects continued to achieve strong absorption rates despite their high prices, with some even selling out on the first day of launch. However, in the fourth quarter, although absorption remained positive, it showed a slight year-on-year decline as supply increased sharply towards the end of the year and investors became more cautious and selective.
"In reality, projects offering high quality, locations connected to infrastructure, and development by reputable investors continued to attract strong demand. Meanwhile, projects with excessively high prices or inappropriate strategies faced slower transaction activity," Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh assessed.
Finally, regarding price movements, the price index reflects changes in average selling prices during the current period compared with the base period (the first quarter of 2019).
In Hanoi, average selling prices increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter and 111% compared to 2019, primarily driven by new projects in central areas. More recently, price growth has slowed as buyers and investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach, while loss-making resale transactions have begun to emerge.
In the newly expanded Ho Chi Minh City following the merger, the apartment market became more vibrant, with particularly strong price increases in Thu Duc and expanded central areas. Similarly, in Da Nang, the merger of Da Nang and Quang Nam pushed prices at certain projects up slightly by 4% quarter-on-quarter, bringing the cumulative increase to 68% compared to the 2019 base period.
2. Real Estate Market in 2026: Expectations for More Substantive and Sustainable Growth
Providing his outlook for the real estate market in 2026, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh forecast that supply would continue to increase, potentially reaching approximately 150,000 products if projects were launched according to schedule.
Within this overall outlook, northern Vietnam is expected to contribute approximately 60,000 products, with Hanoi and Hung Yen accounting for around 40,000. Meanwhile, the Ho Chi Minh City area is projected to reach approximately 55,000 products, while the Mekong Delta region is expected to contribute around 11,000. Notably, the southern region's share of total supply is expected to increase significantly as projects under development are launched according to schedule.
Alongside increasing supply, housing demand in 2026 is expected to remain high, with investment demand continuing to grow amid efforts to accelerate economic growth and transport infrastructure development. As property prices in urban areas have already reached high levels, leaving limited room for further growth, while investment yields remain low, investors are expected to increasingly shift their attention towards suburban and peripheral areas.
However, the market will also face the possibility of liquidity constraints in certain suburban areas, where infrastructure remains incomplete and developers lack the capacity to provide essential amenities capable of attracting actual housing demand.
"In 2026, transaction volumes are expected to increase in proportion to supply, but market activity will become more selective. Capital flows will prioritize projects with completed legal procedures, reputable developers, sustainable development standards, and locations along ring roads or public transport infrastructure routes," the Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association shared.
Despite the ongoing impact of international geopolitical conflicts and rising interest rates on Vietnam's real estate market, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh remains confident that the market will move towards a more sustainable development trajectory, with speculative activities gradually declining.
More specifically, the apartment segment will continue to play a leading role in driving both supply and market liquidity. In addition, land plots and individual houses in provinces and cities with developed economies and infrastructure projects undergoing actual implementation will also remain attractive to investors. Notably, the social housing segment is expected to expand significantly, targeting the completion of 100,000 units in 2026 with active participation from major developers.
Regarding selling prices, primary market prices are forecast to remain high due to a sharp increase in land use fees under the new land price tables, as well as higher capital costs for numerous projects resuming development after their legal obstacles have been resolved. Nevertheless, the pace of price increases is expected to slow as developers compete more actively through pricing and sales policies.
In the secondary market, selling prices are expected to continue rising, although the market will become increasingly differentiated, with transactions taking place on a highly selective basis. While prices in southern Vietnam are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, the increase in supply in northern Vietnam following a period of rapid price growth will create downward pressure, causing selling prices to begin stabilizing.
Nevertheless, upward price trends are expected to persist in projects offering affordable pricing, convenient connectivity under the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model, and established amenity systems capable of attracting residents. At the same time, certain previously underdeveloped areas are also expected to experience renewed price growth as major developers introduce large-scale projects supported by significant infrastructure improvements.
"In summary, Vietnam's real estate market in 2026 is expected to achieve stronger growth than in 2025. Although market segmentation may become more pronounced, growth will be more substantive and sustainable," Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh emphasized./.