AFTER THE MERGER: THE EMERGENCE OF A MULTI-CENTRIC MODEL

1. A Look at Multi-Centric Urban Models Around the World

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh explained that the development of Ho Chi Minh City’s multi-centric urban model can be understood through a concrete international example: the Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul SMA). Today, it is the largest growth engine of South Korea’s economy and a leading embodiment of the multi-centric model. The Seoul SMA comprises three components: Seoul, the hub for finance, high technology, national administration, R&D and premium consumption; Gyeonggi-do, home to industrial zones, high-tech manufacturing (Samsung, LG) and satellite cities; and Incheon, a center for international logistics, industrial zones, seaports and global trade. The Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn emphasized that, as of 2024, half of South Korea’s economy is concentrated in the Seoul SMA, which accounts for as much as 56.3% of national GDP, 50.7% of the total population and 49.1% of all businesses.

Following the multi-centric urban model, the Seoul SMA has pursued development policies built around core functional zones to drive economic growth. The effective dispersal of population from Seoul to the two neighboring areas has been supported by infrastructure development, including over 1,150 km of metro and suburban rail with modern technology, and a 122 km Ring Road No. 3 (as of 2020).

Mr. Nguyễn Quốc Anh observed that, looking back at the development journey, the Seoul metropolitan area’s leap forward was not the result of a single driver but the sum of profound economic shifts. In just under four decades (1985-2023), the region’s GDP structure changed dramatically: technology industries rose from 26% to more than 50%; transport, logistics and business services expanded from 30% to 58%; and the precision equipment manufacturing, biomedical and real estate group doubled from 15% to 30%.

“The openness of the economic center has reversed the flow of people. Instead of converging on Seoul, residents have shifted strongly toward Incheon and Gyeonggi, where land is abundant and new economic opportunities are emerging. Infrastructure has also accelerated at an unprecedented pace: the metro network has grown from 7.4 km to 1,150 km, and the expressway system has expanded from under 100 km to more than 1,000 km over 40 years,” the Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn analyzed.

Alongside this, the real estate market has gone through several cycles of sharp price growth, most notably in 2006-2009 and again after 2019, when South Korea announced its ambition to build a “global city” by 2040. The Seoul SMA’s Global Megacity 2040 Plan marks an important turning point, shaping the development vision for the entire region for decades to come.

2. HCMC: Will Vietnam’s Multi-Centric Urban Hub Follow the Seoul SMA Playbook?

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh pointed out a notable observation: Ho Chi Minh City’s infrastructure today closely resembles that of Seoul before 1982, when the South Korean capital’s metro network stretched only about 20 km and its expressway system had yet to exceed 100 km. Even so, Ho Chi Minh City has set clear and ambitious targets: raising total expressway length to 648 km before 2030 and expanding the metro network to nearly 608 km by 2035.

According to Mr. Quốc Anh, this data outlines a familiar development cycle among megacities. When a city reaches “maturity,” land prices and growth momentum tend to surge in a mutually reinforcing pattern with its satellite cities. If Ho Chi Minh City’s infrastructure projects are delivered on schedule, the city could well enter a large-scale growth phase, similar to the trajectory South Korea once followed.

Following the merger, the “new” Ho Chi Minh City has become the leading megacity in terms of economic scale, land area and population, accounting for 24% of national GDP, covering 6,772 km², home to 13.5 million people and attracting US$6.7 billion in foreign investment. In addition, the new Ho Chi Minh City has established an integrated Industry – Coordination – Logistics value chain. Within it, the former Ho Chi Minh City serves as the hub for coordination, finance and technology (the economic center) and acts as the “brain,” responsible for strategic decision-making, FDI attraction, supply chain operations, R&D and innovation. The former Binh Duong Province is the industrial center and the “input,” where goods, components and materials are produced, while Ba Ria – Vung Tau is the logistics and seaport center and the “output,” moving goods to international markets as quickly as possible at the lowest cost. Together, these three centers create a continuous flow of value from production to management and export.

Mr. Quốc Anh emphasized that the post-merger Ho Chi Minh City possesses a strong foundation for breakthrough growth and is expected to lift Vietnam’s growth to a new level, accounting for 24% of GDP, 30% of FDI and 14% of the population. The expansion of its boundaries and the merger have moved Ho Chi Minh City into a new stage of development: from a “single-center” urban model to a multi-centric structure in which multiple growth poles operate together and complement one another. This shift is opening up significant room for the real estate market. It can be said that, after the merger, Ho Chi Minh City has expanded not only geographically but also the scope of its urban development. As a multi-centric megacity, the city is entering a new real estate growth cycle: deeper, broader and longer-lasting.