RESHAPING THE REAL ESTATE LANDSCAPE: HOW THE STATE IS REGULATING LAND PRICES AND TIGHTENING ACCESS TO LAND RESOURCES

1. THE BIGGER PICTURE

The implementation of the 2024 Land Law and its implementing decrees, together with the proposed amendment and supplementation of certain provisions under consideration by the 15th and 16th National Assemblies, is taking place against a broader effort to refine the legal framework for land management. At the core of the Government’s current policy direction are two principles:

1. A framework-based approach to legislation

The law should focus on fundamental and core principles, minimizing overly detailed provisions that could create overlaps, become outdated quickly, and require frequent amendments.

2. Macroeconomic management of land-related costs

The State is taking a more active role in regulating and managing land prices, with the stated objective of preventing excessive increases in land prices from raising input costs across the economy. At the same time, greater discipline is being applied to Build-Transfer (BT) payment mechanisms and land-use-right auctions (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

This adjustment is taking place as regulators simultaneously address a large backlog of long-standing projects while establishing a more transparent legal framework for the next investment cycle.

2. KEY FIGURES TO WATCH

• 44 laws and resolutions: The Government is expected to submit 44 laws and resolutions to the National Assembly at the second session of the 16th National Assembly. A number of policies are expected to be amended and refined through a cross-sectoral and systematic approach aimed at addressing bottlenecks and mobilizing resources (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).  

• 3,241 out of more than 4,000 projects: Among more than 4,000 long-standing and stalled projects under review, 3,241 projects have had their difficulties and obstacles addressed. This represents a significant pool of resources in the process of resolving prolonged project bottlenecks and potentially reactivating investment activity (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

• 85% of the five-year social housing target: According to government updates in September 2026, social housing development had reached approximately 85% of the five-year target (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

• 66,755 social housing units: To provide a clearer picture at an earlier point in time, as of March 2025, Vietnam had 103 completed social housing projects with 66,755 units. In 2024 alone, 28 projects were completed with 20,284 units. Therefore, the figure of 66,755 units should be explicitly identified by its reporting date rather than directly converted into a current percentage. (Source: baochinhphu.vn)

• 120 days: Under the regulations governing land-use-right auctions, if the successful bidder fails to pay, or fails to fully pay, the required amount, then 120 days from the date on which the auction result is approved, the tax authority notifies the competent land-management authority so that the competent authority can proceed with the cancellation of the decision recognizing the auction result (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

• December 2027: This is the proposed adjusted milestone for completing the development of the national land database, against the backdrop of more than 36.7 million land parcels reportedly lacking completed data as of 15 September 2026. This should be understood as a proposed adjustment rather than a newly established statutory deadline (Source: vietnamplus.vn).

3. WHAT IS CHANGING?

The most significant changes lie in the approach to land valuation and the way land resources are regulated and managed:

• From passive valuation to proactive regulation: The new approach shifts away from a rigid method of adjusting land prices toward a more market-responsive mechanism, under which land-price tables are adjusted annually, while the land-price adjustment coefficient (K coefficient) continues to be applied in cases falling within its statutory scope to reflect differences between the prices in the land-price table and prevailing market prices. This gives the State additional tools to regulate land prices, enhance transparency, and help limit unreasonable fluctuations in land-related costs for development projects (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

• Closing financial loopholes in land-use-right auctions: Regulations governing the time limit for fulfilling financial obligations after winning a land-use-right auction provide that failure to pay, or failure to pay the full amount as required, may result in the cancellation of the recognized auction result. This can help limit participation by bidders without sufficient financial capacity and reduce incentives for speculative bidding and deposit forfeiture.

• Strengthening discipline in BT contracts: Land-based payment mechanisms are being standardized, with the value of the land fund and the value of BT works determined in accordance with applicable regulations, ensuring value equivalence and transparency in settlement. This strengthens oversight of the use of land resources as a form of payment to investors (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

4. FROM THE PROJECT DEVELOPER’S PERSPECTIVE

5. WHERE DOES THE REAL SIGNIFICANCE LIE? — INSIGHTS FROM THE DATA

1. Land-related costs are becoming part of the macroeconomic stability equation

Analysis: The Government’s stated position that the State will regulate and manage land prices and prevent excessive increases in land prices from raising input costs across the economy represents a significant shift in the policy approach to land management. Land prices are increasingly being viewed not merely as a local revenue instrument, but as a fundamental cost factor affecting the wider economy.

Basis: The position was stated during a voter-contact meeting and reported by the Government Electronic Information Portal (Source: baochinhphu.vn).

2. Short-term cash-flow pressure on land-auction projects may increase significantly

Analysis: A proposed maximum payment period of 12 months for land-use levies arising from land-use-right auctions would create a significantly tighter financing timetable. Businesses without sufficient fundraising capacity could face greater difficulty meeting their financial obligations within the prescribed period.

The policy direction could also reduce the scope for strategies involving high-value auction bids followed by delayed payment while waiting for more favorable market conditions. However, the actual impact will depend on the final wording and implementation of the amended Land Law.

Basis: Health & Life and a compilation of policy and regulatory information (Source: suckhoedoisong.vn)

 3. Potential to unlock capital from the portfolio of 3,241 projects whose obstacles have been addressed

Analysis: The resolution of obstacles affecting 3,241 out of more than 4,000 long-standing and stalled projects under review indicates that some future supply could potentially come from unlocking and restarting existing stalled projects rather than relying exclusively on the development of new projects. This could also provide a basis for developers to consider project restructuring, seek additional financing and strategic partners, or explore M&A opportunities.

Basis: According to the Government Electronic Information Portal, among more than 4,000 long-standing and stalled projects under review, 3,241 projects have had their difficulties and obstacles addressed, with total investment capital of approximately VND 2.38 quadrillion (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).

4. The combination of a framework-based legal system and a digital land database — by December 2027

Analysis: The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment’s target of completing the National Land Information System and National Land Database in Q4 2027 indicates that 2026–2027 will remain an important period for institutional reform and digital transformation in land administration. For real estate developers, the standardization of legal records, land-parcel information, and land-bank data will become increasingly important as land-management procedures move further into electronic systems and integrated databases.

Basis: Decision No. 3275/QD-BNNMT dated 17 August 2026 issued by the Minister of Agriculture and Environment, under which the implementation plan sets Q4 2027 as the target for the task of “managing and operating the National Land Information System and National Land Database.” (Source: thuvienphapluat.vn).

6. LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

Changes in land governance and the ongoing process of amending the Land Law are reshaping the real estate business environment along three long-term trends:

• Gross margins moving toward more sustainable levels: The period of generating outsized profits from land-rent differentials through delayed valuation mechanisms or procedural loopholes is gradually narrowing. Project developers’ margins are increasingly expected to depend on their capabilities in planning, design, efficient construction, and professional asset operations.

• Financial leverage becoming a key filter for project developers: Stricter payment requirements in land-use-right auctions, together with tighter management of BT contracts, require developers to maintain a stronger equity base and prudent leverage levels.

• A greater balance between ownership and use: With greater emphasis on social housing and long-term rental housing policies, the policy direction may gradually reduce pressure from speculative ownership. The market may become more differentiated: segments serving genuine housing demand could gain greater liquidity, while high-end projects would increasingly need to demonstrate tangible lifestyle value rather than rely primarily on projected returns.

CONCLUSION

The State’s regulation of land prices and tighter oversight of land allocation and land-use-right auctions can be understood as part of a broader effort to standardize the market and bring real estate input costs onto a more sustainable footing for the wider economy. For project developers, this represents a significant shift in strategy: from “land accumulation and speculation” toward the ability to “create tangible use value from every square meter of developed land.” (Source: xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn).