REAL ESTATE FACES PRICE ADJUSTMENT PRESSURE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR

The real estate market is entering a period of adjustment as liquidity becomes a more decisive factor than price appreciation. Amid persistently high mortgage rates, experts forecast that property prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year.

According to SSI Research, the current interest rate environment is creating significant challenges for homebuyers and investors. Fixed preferential mortgage rates for the first 12 months have risen to approximately 8.5–10%, while floating rates now range from 11–15%. Higher borrowing costs have weakened purchasing power and reduced affordability across the market.

At the same time, the sector remains heavily dependent on bank financing. With liquidity conditions in the financial system still under pressure, access to capital has become more difficult for both buyers and investors, leading to a decline in overall market demand.

SSI Research expects mortgage rates to remain relatively high through the end of the year. Meanwhile, new housing supply in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City continues to be concentrated in the high-end and luxury apartment segments. These product categories are particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which may further affect market absorption.

The secondary market is facing even greater pressure as many borrowers move beyond their preferential interest-rate periods and transition to floating-rate loans. Rising debt-servicing costs are forcing some investors to consider selling assets or reducing asking prices in order to improve cash flow and recover capital.

However, the impact is not expected to be uniform across all property segments. Apartments and well-planned urban developments may continue to benefit from genuine housing demand and resettlement needs associated with ongoing infrastructure expansion. In contrast, townhouses, individual homes, and land plots are likely to face greater liquidity challenges as investment demand weakens and market sentiment becomes more cautious.

Market observations indicate that the number of properties being offered for resale has increased since the beginning of the year, particularly among investors who rely heavily on financial leverage. A survey conducted by the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) found that some apartment and low-rise housing projects have recorded price reductions of approximately VND 100–300 million per unit. In several areas that previously experienced rapid price growth, prices have either stagnated or undergone slight corrections.

Data from CBRE reflects a similar trend. The rate of price growth in the secondary apartment market has slowed significantly since late last year. By the end of the first quarter, more than half of the projects surveyed reported either stable or declining asking prices compared to the previous quarter. In the landed property segment, primary market absorption also fell sharply year-over-year.

According to market experts, financial pressure is expected to intensify as many property owners reach the end of their principal repayment grace periods. With market liquidity yet to show a strong recovery, price adjustments are increasingly viewed as a necessary strategy to facilitate transactions and improve capital recovery.

Overall, the real estate market is entering a more selective and challenging phase. While the extent of price adjustments will vary depending on location, property type, and project quality, the market is increasingly shifting its focus from short-term price gains toward liquidity and sustainable value.

Source: VnEpress