NEARLY 5,000 PROJECTS STALLED, VND 3.5 QUADRILLION IN INVESTMENT AWAITING A BREAKTHROUGH: WILL CAPITAL START FLOWING AGAIN?

More Than 4,800 Stalled Projects: The Scale of the Challenge in Unlocking Resources

For years, Vietnam’s real estate market has faced a wave of projects left dormant or put on hold. The underlying causes largely stem from overlapping and frequently changing legal frameworks governing land, investment, planning, finance, and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Determining the appropriate legal basis for resolving these issues carries significant risks, leaving both developers and local authorities struggling to find a way forward.

However, the establishment of Steering Committee 751 to address persistent bottlenecks, together with efforts to accelerate the implementation of three key laws—the Land Law, the Law on Housing, and the Law on Real Estate Business—signals a shift in the management approach, from merely acknowledging obstacles to actively resolving them. The market is entering a new phase, moving away from expansion-driven growth toward a greater focus on disciplined, in-depth development.

From Backlog Data to Resolution Mechanisms: A Shift in Governance

One of the most notable changes lies in how government agencies approach problem-solving. Rather than addressing individual obstacles in isolation, the relevant authorities are moving toward a systematic review and classification of difficulties and shortcomings, with a view to proposing special mechanisms and policies for consideration by the National Assembly and the Politburo, within their respective jurisdictions. The use of the VNeID digital identity platform to collect public feedback on draft legal documents also reflects efforts to accelerate digital transformation in policymaking. This approach can broaden public participation, improve transparency, and ensure that policies more accurately reflect people’s needs and aspirations.

The entrenched tendency to defer decisions to higher authorities and shift responsibility upward is increasingly being challenged. Specialized agencies and local authorities are expected to take a more direct role in issuing guidance and proposing definitive solutions.

Data recorded in System 751 illustrates the scale and complexity of the task:

• 4,846 projects: The number of projects nationwide recorded in System 751 as facing difficulties and obstacles as of late September 2026.

• 208,882 hectares: The total area of land affected by long-standing stalled projects.

• Nearly VND 3.5 quadrillion: The total investment value of projects that remain stalled, unable to be fully converted into tangible economic and social value.

• Six groups of bottlenecks: Projects have been classified into six specific categories in System 751 to facilitate the development of appropriate resolution mechanisms.

• Three localities and three ministries commended by the Government: According to information published on the Government News portal, the Government commended Hue City, Da Nang City, and Thanh Hoa Province, together with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Construction, and the Ministry of Health, for their proactive and decisive implementation of assigned tasks, their willingness to take responsibility rather than evade it, and their positive results in resolving difficulties affecting long-stalled projects.

Legal Bottlenecks May Be Eased, but Financial Strength Will Determine Which Projects Reach Completion

Planning and legal compliance: Corporate compliance costs and the cost of accessing land may fluctuate, potentially increasing as regulations governing land, investment, and project development continue to evolve. However, the extent of the impact will depend on land valuation mechanisms, how land is allocated or accessed, and the effectiveness of administrative reforms. In response to these changes, developers may need to adjust their product mix, prioritize projects that meet genuine housing demand and generate stable cash flow, and take a more cautious approach to high-end properties that rely heavily on investment demand and speculative activity.

Financing and cash flow: Business models that rely on launching projects without sufficient capital or raising funds before meeting legal requirements are likely to face tighter scrutiny. Resolving legal obstacles does not automatically resolve financial difficulties. Developers will need a solid equity base and the ability to independently secure financing from credit institutions.

Project implementation timelines: The review process under System 751 requires accurate updates on financial obligations and the causes of each project's bottlenecks. Transparent and accurate reporting can help eligible projects obtain the necessary approvals for subsequent stages sooner, reducing the risk of remaining indefinitely in administrative limbo.

Asset-related risks: Research into mechanisms for resolving stalled real estate projects—including converting commercial housing projects into social housing where legally permissible, as well as facilitating mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of projects—is placing greater emphasis on developers’ financial capacity and execution capabilities. Companies that lack sufficient resources or fail to complete legal procedures in a timely manner may face mounting pressure to restructure, transfer their projects, or dispose of tied-up land holdings rather than continue holding assets for extended periods in anticipation of a market recovery.

Three Signals Reshaping the Competitive Landscape of Vietnam’s Real Estate Market

Stronger decentralization to break legal bottlenecks. The Government’s public commendation of Hue, Da Nang, and Thanh Hoa signals a broader trend toward greater decentralization of decision-making authority. From an investment perspective, localities with agile administrative systems, a strong grasp of the legal framework, and a decisive approach to resolving project bottlenecks could become increasingly attractive destinations for M&A investment and real estate development in the next market cycle.

Digitizing project data to improve market transparency. Digitizing detailed information on more than 4,800 projects in System 751—including implementation status, legal grounds, and the causes of delays—could provide a clearer macro-level picture of the market. This data could reduce uncertainty surrounding project legal status and enable institutional investors to assess risks more effectively before committing capital to the restructuring of existing projects.

Project acquisitions as a test of financial and execution capabilities. A mechanism under which the State acquires stalled projects could have two distinct implications. At the macroeconomic level, it could help unlock resources tied up in dormant projects and alleviate the burden of non-performing assets. At the project level, it could serve as an indirect means of screening out developers that accumulate large land banks but lack the financial capacity to fund and advance their projects.

What Will Define the Next Generation of Real Estate Developers?

Efforts to resolve bottlenecks affecting nearly 5,000 projects, combined with the implementation of the three key laws, could usher in a new phase for Vietnam’s real estate market—one increasingly defined by real demand and execution capabilities. Developers will find it harder to compete by exploiting regulatory loopholes alone. Profit margins across the sector may gradually become more standardized, moving closer to those typically associated with conventional infrastructure development. Long-term competitive advantages will increasingly belong to companies with transparent financial structures, products aligned with genuine market demand, and professional legal and regulatory management capabilities.

CONCLUSION

The ongoing review of thousands of stalled projects and the development of special policy mechanisms send a strong signal that Vietnam’s real estate market is entering an era of more rigorous oversight. Over the coming decade, the success or failure of real estate companies will depend not simply on how many hectares of land they control, but on their ability to adapt to the evolving legal framework, maintain transparent cash flows, and turn land holdings into viable developments that deliver meaningful living spaces and tangible value to society.