THE LONGER YOU WAIT, THE FURTHER OUT OF REACH IT BECOMES. WILL APARTMENT PRICES REALLY FALL IN THE FUTURE?

3 Key Factors That Determine Apartment Prices

An apartment’s price is fundamentally shaped by three core factors:

Land Prices

Land cost is the first and most decisive component in apartment pricing. In major cities, land availability is becoming increasingly scarce while population demand continues to rise, placing growing pressure on housing supply. At the same time, rapid infrastructure development and urban amenities further push land values higher especially in central areas where developable land is now extremely limited. As a result, land prices rarely decline in the long term; instead, they typically continue rising over time.

Construction Material Costs

Construction material costs are the second major factor directly affecting apartment prices. In recent years, key materials such as steel, cement, sand, and stone have continuously increased in price.

Specifically, 2025 saw increases of around 5-10%, while forecasts for 2026 suggest a further rise of 8-15%. Cement alone increased by approximately VND 50,000 per ton in March 2026. The main drivers include soaring fuel costs, a strong wave of public infrastructure investment boosting construction demand, and tightening material supply. As a result, this factor has a direct and significant impact on both project implementation costs and final apartment prices.

Labor, Operational, and Financial Costs

Labor, operational, and financial expenses form the third key component of apartment pricing and these costs are also rising significantly. They include increasing labor wages, loan interest and financing costs in an environment where capital is no longer cheap, as well as operational expenses throughout the project development process.

In reality, many contractors are currently facing losses or even paying penalties for breached contracts because material prices have risen far beyond initial estimates. This clearly reflects the mounting cost pressure across the entire industry, which inevitably impacts overall real estate pricing.

From Costs to Selling Prices: A Hard-to-Change Rule

The relationship between costs and selling prices is a fundamental rule of the real estate market that is difficult to reverse. The logic is straightforward: when input costs rise, construction costs rise accordingly, leaving little room for real estate prices to decline in the long term.

Therefore, expecting apartment prices to drop sharply in the future may not be realistic as long as core factors such as land prices, construction materials, and operating costs continue trending upward.

Instead of asking, “Will apartment prices become cheaper in a few years?”, a more practical question would be: if construction costs increase by another 20–30% over the next 2–3 years, what price level will apartment prices reach by then?

That is the question that reveals the true nature of the market and helps buyers make more informed decisions.

Buying Early — Not Because the Market Is Perfect

The decision to buy a home should not depend solely on whether the market appears “good” or “bad,” but rather on the long-term trajectory of costs. As the key components that shape real estate prices continue to rise over time, choosing when to buy should be viewed from the perspective of future costs rather than short-term market sentiment.

Buying early is not about believing the market is perfect — it is about recognizing the strong likelihood that future costs will continue increasing, making it difficult for property prices to decline significantly.

Victory Group – Supporting Customers in Making the Right Decisions at the Right Time

In a market that increasingly demands long-term vision and deep understanding, Victory Group not only develops projects but also acts as a strategic partner, helping customers analyze market trends, optimize investment decisions, and identify the right timing.

With experience across multiple large-scale developments and a comprehensive ecosystem, Victory Group delivers products carefully planned around cost efficiency, project progress, and long-term value creation. More than just places to live, these projects are solutions that help customers stay ahead of future price trends and build sustainable asset value over time.