VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET Q3/2025: SIGNS OF RECOVERY AND NEW DIRECTIONS

Macroeconomy Lays the Foundation for Market Growth

According to the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam’s economy maintained a positive growth trajectory in Q3/2025, driven by a combination of favorable macroeconomic factors. GDP grew 8.23% - the highest level for the same period since 2011 (excluding 2022, the post-COVID recovery year). Overall, GDP for the first three quarters rose 7.84% year-over-year, approaching the annual growth target of 8%. Notably, public spending reached VND 440 trillion, up 37%, becoming a key driver of economic growth.

Alongside infrastructure investment, FDI inflows into Vietnam remained robust, with real estate (R.E.) among the top three most attractive sectors. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded, manufacturing activity improved after tariff adjustments, and domestic consumption remained stable, all reinforcing the foundation for real estate recovery.

According to data from Batdongsan.com.vn (Vietnam’s No.1 real estate technology platform), the Q3/2025 property market showed a clear divergence between sales and rentals. After macroeconomic volatility in Q2, buyer interest recovered quickly - apartments led the rebound, while townhouses and private houses also showed signs of improvement. Several areas recorded a rise in buyer interest of 11–22% compared to early 2025. Meanwhile, rental demand fell during the “Ghost Month” (August lunar period), especially for boarding houses and small rentals, dropping 8–24% month-over-month in September 2025.

Despite that, Batdongsan.com.vn’s Q3/2025 broker survey revealed a positive market absorption rate: nearly 90% of surveyed investors rated it from “average” to “good,” including 4% saying “very good” and 25% “good.” Only 12% viewed absorption as weak.

Looking ahead to Q4/2025, 60% of brokers expect the market to continue growing, 17% foresee strong growth, about one-third anticipate stability, and just 6% express concern about potential decline. The apartment segment is viewed most optimistically for growth in the next six months (36%), followed by private houses (29%) and land plots (24%). Other types such as shophouses, resorts, or villas accounted for smaller shares - reflecting investor focus on end-user and high-liquidity products.

Shift of Interest Toward Suburban and Satellite Markets

Data from Batdongsan.com.vn in Q3/2025 outlines a clear trend: capital and demand are shifting from major urban centers to surrounding suburban areas, where growth potential remains high and regional infrastructure is rapidly improving.

In both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, investor interest stagnated. Hanoi recorded a 22% year-on-year drop, while Ho Chi Minh City remained flat (0%) or slightly down (-1%) in new areas.

In contrast, neighboring provinces emerged as bright spots. Suburban Hanoi markets grew 11%, while in the South, despite some local declines of up to 12%, several provinces showed strong momentum. Northern provinces such as Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Hoa Binh, and Bac Ninh accounted for 80% of total regional interest.

In terms of growth since early 2025, Hoa Binh led with +65%, followed by Bac Giang (+61%), Hai Phong (+50%), and Bac Ninh (+48%). Other provinces like Quang Ninh, Hung Yen, and Vinh Phuc maintained steady gains of 26–42%. This surge reflects a capital shift toward satellite cities around Hanoi, where prices remain competitive, connectivity is improving, and long-term growth potential is strong.

In the South, activity was concentrated in satellite markets: Binh Duong accounted for 84% of total interest, followed by Dong Nai (38%), Ba Ria–Vung Tau (34%), and Long An (28%). This demonstrates a clear movement of capital away from HCMC toward areas with expanding transport infrastructure, abundant land, and competitive pricing, suitable for both end-users and long-term investors.

Meanwhile, the Central region maintained steady growth, with overall interest up 13% year-over-year. Da Nang and Khanh Hoa continued to lead, capturing 84% of regional attention. Provinces such as Lam Dong (18%), Quang Nam (14%), and Thanh Hoa (10%) also showed improvement. In terms of prices, Khanh Hoa led with +34%, Quang Nam surprised with +44%, and Da Nang rose 25%.

Experts note that these trends highlight the market’s resilience and adaptability amid macroeconomic changes, with standout performances in major urban centers. Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, and Da Nang continued to post strong price growth during 2021–2025.

Among all segments, apartments and land plots remain the leading forces in local markets. Particularly in HCMC, the average apartment price reached VND 72 million/m², up 35% since early 2023, while land plots rose about 6% to VND 69 million/m².

According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Southern Regional Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, the Southern market is rebounding after a cautious phase, supply is improving, and liquidity is rising thanks to both investment capital and genuine housing demand. In Hanoi, while prices continue to increase, buyer sentiment has cooled, with capital now concentrating more on premium near-center apartments - a segment still leading the market.

Source: Compiled data.