REAL ESTATE MARKET PICTURE IN JULY 2026: RECOVERY MOMENTUM AND A FIERCE LIQUIDITY RACE

Clear Signals of Recovery from Financial Indicators and Supply

According to consolidated reports from the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction and market research firms (CBRE, JLL), data from the first half of the year and July 2026 show that growth momentum is steadily being consolidated:

• Capital Returning to the Market: Real estate business revenue in HCMC (first 5 months) reached over VND 126,000 billion; outstanding real estate credit hit over VND 1.5 million billion. Credit support packages (such as the VND 145,000 billion program) are being actively disbursed to eligible projects.

• Transaction Liquidity Bouncing Back: HCMC recorded over 19,640 transactions issued with land use rights certificates (red/pink books), valued at over VND 92,000 billion. The apartment segment accounted for the dominant share (over 14,700 successful transactions).

• Supply Unlocked: The HCMC Department of Construction confirmed 25 commercial housing projects eligible to raise capital for future housing, supplementing nearly 19,000 units to the market.

Price Movements: Remaining High with Noticeable Divergence

Primary price levels in major urban centers like Hanoi and HCMC remain high, yet clear contrasting trends have emerged across different segments:

Apartment Segment

• In HCMC: The average primary selling price reached approximately VND 98.1 million/m² (up nearly 11% year-on-year). The Eastern zone continues to lead, contributing 70% of the new supply. In central areas or special mega-projects (such as the Can Gio land reclamation project), luxury and ultra-luxury segments range from VND 400 - 500 million/m².

• In Hanoi: Average primary prices reached VND 95 million/m² by mid-2026 (compared to VND 78 million/m² in late 2024). Conversely, secondary market prices have begun to cool down, with annual growth expected at 10–13% for 2026 (significantly lower than the hot 24–25%/year growth seen in 2024–2025).

Landed Property & Commercial Segments

• HCMC Landed Property: Although primary land prices averaged around VND 195 million/m², overall price levels adjusted downward year-on-year due to the arrival of large-scale township projects in the Northern and Eastern suburban areas offering more affordable pricing.

• Office & Retail: Grade A office space in HCMC maintained stable rental rates (~USD 60.7/m²/month) with vacancy rates dropping to ~18%. Meanwhile, prime retail spaces recorded an impressive occupancy rate, with vacancy standing at just 4.4%—among the lowest in Southeast AsiaFinancial Infrastructure Challenges and the H2 2026 Liquidity Race

Despite improved supply, the market outlook for the second half of 2026 is not entirely smooth sailing. Experts predict the liquidity race will intensify due to several key factors:

Slower Consumption Rates Due to Interest Rate Pressures

• While absorption rates during new project launches averaged 90–95% in 2024–2025, that figure dropped to below 70% by mid-2026.

• Rising mortgage interest rates since late 2025 have driven up financing costs for homebuyers. This directly narrows the short-term profit expectations for speculative investors.

The "Sales Policy" Competition

Given the surging supply (Hanoi alone expects up to 39,000 new apartments in 2026), prime location is no longer the sole deciding factor. Developers are forced to compete by offering flexible financial packages, extended payment schedules, and interest rate subsidies to stimulate demand.

Corporate Selection Wave: Over 1,800 Real Estate Firms Exit the Market

Data published by the General Statistics Office through July 2026 highlights a fierce elimination phase within the industry:

Real Estate Corporate Data - First 7 Months of 2026
- Newly established: 3,649 businesses (Increase 23.2% YoY)
- Dissolved: 1,861 businesses (Increase 135.3% YoY)

Insight: Although returning market confidence has driven a rise in new business incorporations, capital cost pressures, debt burdens, and strict requirements for execution capabilities have caused real estate business dissolutions to surge over 135%. The market is undergoing natural selection, weeding out financially and legally weak entities.

5. Cash Flow Trends and Advice for Investors

Buyer sentiment has shifted noticeably: Purchasing decisions are no longer driven by short-term price appreciation expectations, but rather prioritize transparent legal status, complete infrastructure connectivity, and real housing or immediate rental cash flow needs.

Investment cash flow in the second half of 2026 is projected to split into two distinct groups:

1. Safety-First Group (Short/Mid-Term Flow): Seeking apartments and residential properties in urban cores/central locations with completed infrastructure for immediate move-in or rental yield.

2. Long-Term Vision Group: Actively seeking land plots and properties in satellite townships or transit-oriented developments (TOD), where entry prices are reasonable and stand to benefit from public infrastructure investment.