LAND AVAILABILITY KEY TO DEVELOPING OVER 191,000 RENTAL HOMES BY 2030

1. Rental Housing Supply Gains Momentum

According to figures from the Ministry of Construction reported by the media, as of the end of September 2026, 170 social housing projects had been completed nationwide, providing 46,962 units. Over the same period, 128 projects had commenced construction, with a combined capacity of 183,293 units, including 140,492 social housing units and 42,801 rental units.

Among social housing projects that include rental units, 114 projects were under development, representing a total of 63,970 units. By the end of the third quarter of 2026, 8,314 rental units had been completed, equivalent to approximately 48% of the annual target. The number of completed units is projected to reach 18,049 by the end of 2026, or 105% of the annual target. This figure is a forecast rather than a confirmed actual completion result.

These figures reflect different stages of the housing development process. It is therefore important to distinguish between projects that have commenced construction, completed projects and projected completions, while taking into account the scope of each statistical category.

2. The Target of 191,023 Rental Units Sets the Direction Through 2030

Under Resolution No. 303/NQ-CP, the total target for social housing and rental housing development for 2026–2030 is 899,857 units, comprising 708,834 units for sale or lease-purchase and 191,023 units for rent. Local authorities are responsible for incorporating their assigned targets into annual socioeconomic development plans and implementing them in line with local conditions.

According to Appendix III of the resolution, rental housing targets are allocated as follows:

The targets increase over the period, with substantially higher figures in the final years. This makes early preparation essential, particularly in securing land, completing legal procedures and arranging financing. However, assigned targets do not guarantee actual completion. Results will depend on project timelines, developers’ financial capacity, infrastructure readiness and local rental demand.

3. Land Availability Directly Affects Investment Viability

Land is not merely a prerequisite for construction; it also influences investment costs, a project's ability to attract tenants and achievable rental rates. According to an analysis published by VnEconomy, an expert estimated that land costs could account for approximately 50–60% of the relevant total costs, rising to 70–80% in central areas. These figures are expert estimates, not official statistics applicable to the entire market.

Well-located sites can attract tenants but generally come with higher land costs. Conversely, cheaper sites located far from workplaces or lacking transport links and essential services may be less attractive to prospective tenants. Land selection therefore requires a balance between total investment costs, rental demand and the affordability of the target tenant group.

Unlike projects developed for sale, rental housing projects must generate income from the property over an extended period to recover investment costs. In addition to land costs, developers must account for construction expenses, financing costs, operations, maintenance and the risk of lower-than-expected occupancy rates. A larger project does not necessarily deliver better financial returns if rents are unaffordable or demand is unstable.

4. Location and Infrastructure Shape Long-Term Performance

Resolution No. 303/NQ-CP requires local authorities to identify land sites for social housing and rental housing development and ensure that suitable land is available in locations with adequate technical and social infrastructure. The resolution also provides for encouraging investors with clean land that complies with planning requirements, has supporting infrastructure and is backed by sufficient financial capacity to participate in project development in accordance with applicable regulations.

Media reports on rental housing development priorities have identified several potential locations, including special-class, Class I and Class II urban areas; areas developed under the transit-oriented development (TOD) model; industrial parks and export processing zones; and areas near universities and colleges. These locations may serve the housing needs of industrial workers, students and people working in urban areas.

However, these locations should not be interpreted as an automatically applicable list for every project. Developers must still assess planning requirements, transport connectivity, rental demand and prevailing market rates when determining a project's location, scale and apartment mix.

5. Proposal to Allocate Dedicated Land for Rental Housing

In response to rising land costs and the need to expand long-term housing supply, experts have proposed planning dedicated land for rental housing. This approach could help local authorities identify suitable sites earlier, determine appropriate development scales and align housing plans with residential demand.

This proposal must be distinguished from the land allocation requirements set out in Resolution No. 303/NQ-CP. The proposal should not be interpreted as a blanket legal requirement for all commercial housing projects to reserve a fixed proportion of land for rental housing or the build-to-rent (BTR) model.

Similarly, not all rental housing projects are automatically exempt from land-use fees or land rental payments, or eligible for preferential financing. Access to such support depends on the housing category, project eligibility and applicable legal provisions.

Social rental housing and commercial rental housing are also distinct segments, with different target tenants, investment structures and support mechanisms. Recognizing these differences is essential to accurately assessing housing supply and the conditions required for project implementation.

6. Outlook Depends on Actual Project Delivery

The target of 191,023 rental housing units for 2026–2030 provides a clear direction for expanding supply. However, progress will depend on the ability to secure suitable land, complete investment procedures, control costs and meet actual rental demand.

In the long term, suitable land is one of the foundations of rental housing development. Combined with clear planning, adequate infrastructure and an effective operating strategy, it can help improve investment viability and support the sustainability of long-term rental housing projects.