HOW WILL REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS EVOLVE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2026?

Supply Expands, but Absorption Rates Decline

According to data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), approximately 52,000 properties were introduced to the market in the most recent quarter, including around 38,000 newly launched units—more than 2.5 times higher than the same period last year.

However, only about 24,000 transactions were successfully completed, resulting in an absorption rate of roughly 47%, significantly lower than the previous quarter. This indicates that despite increasing supply, buyers remain cautious when making purchasing decisions.

In major markets such as Hanoi, segments that previously experienced rapid price growth, including apartments and land plots, have begun to cool down. Many property owners have reduced asking prices or even accepted losses, yet still struggle to find buyers.

Property Prices Unlikely to Fall Sharply

Despite weakening liquidity, real estate prices are expected to remain relatively high. Rising project development costs, particularly land-use fees under new land pricing frameworks and increasing construction expenses, continue to put upward pressure on property values.

At the same time, the emergence of new housing products such as social housing and rental housing, combined with changing buyer preferences, is reshaping market dynamics, pricing strategies, and consumer behavior.

Interest Rates and Wait-and-See Sentiment Continue to Weigh on the Market

Industry experts believe lending rates are unlikely to decline significantly in the near term due to ongoing funding pressures within the banking system. This affects both developers seeking project financing and homebuyers looking for mortgage loans.

Meanwhile, end-users are increasingly choosing to postpone purchases in anticipation of further price adjustments or opting for savings deposits to take advantage of attractive interest rates. Investors have also become more cautious, as expectations of continuous property appreciation are no longer as strong as in previous years.

In addition, the digitalization of land databases and proposed taxes on second homes or vacant properties are expected to curb speculative activities and improve market transparency over the long term.

Social Housing Remains a Bright Spot

Against the backdrop of a challenging market, social housing is expected to remain one of the strongest-performing segments, supported by substantial end-user demand and favorable government policies.

For commercial housing projects, pricing has become the key determinant of sales performance. Developers willing to accept lower profit margins and offer products that align with buyers’ purchasing power are likely to enjoy stronger liquidity and higher sales volumes.

Outlook for the Remainder of 2026

Overall, the second half of 2026 is expected to be a period of continued market adjustment and consolidation. Although supply is increasing, buyers remain cautious, making a significant improvement in liquidity unlikely in the short term.

In this environment, projects that offer clear legal status, realistic pricing, and genuine end-user value will be best positioned to attract demand and achieve successful sales.

Source: Bao dien tu Tien Phong