VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET IN OCTOBER 2026: DECLINING LIQUIDITY, PERSISTENTLY HIGH PROPERTY PRICES, AND DIVERGING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

1. Overview of the Real Estate Market in October 2026

According to a report presented at a meeting of the Central Steering Committee on Housing Policy and the Real Estate Market, Vietnam recorded approximately 92,004 successful real estate transactions in Q3 2026, equivalent to 92% of the figure recorded in Q2. Based on reports submitted by 27 out of 34 localities, inventory at real estate projects reached approximately 51,950 units, plots, and land lots, indicating an upward trend compared with the previous quarter.

These figures reflect market developments in Q3 and the cumulative results for the first nine months of 2026, rather than statistics specifically for October.

Source: Ministry of Construction market report, as reported by the media; cumulative transaction figures for the first nine months of 2026 were cited in a summary published by Dân Trí.

The increase in inventory indicates that sales performance at real estate projects remains an area requiring close monitoring. However, the reported inventory figures primarily reflect properties reported by project developers. They do not represent the entire volume of unsold properties in the secondary market or the capital tied up in unfinished projects.

2. Trends Across Different Real Estate Segments

2.1. Apartment Market

According to market information citing Savills data, Ho Chi Minh City recorded approximately 1,900 newly launched apartments in Q3 2026, bringing total primary supply to around 5,800 units. The reported absorption rate was 25%, equivalent to approximately 1,400 transactions.

Although new supply has entered the market, affordability and borrowing costs remain key factors influencing homebuyers' purchasing decisions. Buyers should compare selling prices, payment terms, and project completion timelines, while carefully verifying legal documentation before signing any agreements.

2.2. Land Plot Market

Land plots accounted for 251,607 of the total 331,876 real estate transactions recorded during the first nine months of the year, based on figures cited by the media from the market report.

However, a high transaction volume does not necessarily mean that every area enjoys strong market liquidity. Investors should prioritize properties with transparent planning information, existing infrastructure, and prices that can be benchmarked against comparable properties.

2.3. Townhouses, Villas, and Commercial Real Estate

For high-value properties requiring substantial investment, buyers should assess the purchase price, financing costs, and potential for income generation together. For rental or commercial properties, projected cash flow should be calculated based on actual market demand rather than relying solely on expectations of future price appreciation.

3. Real Estate Market Developments in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi

3.1. Ho Chi Minh City Market

MOSO data for October 2026 recorded 9,932 active property listings for sale in Ho Chi Minh City, with a typical asking price of VND 9.5 billion. During the month, the platform recorded 4,098 new listings, with a typical asking price of VND 29 billion, and a total of 4,234 views.

Source: MOSO Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Market Report – October 2026.

These figures reflect listing activity on the MOSO platform and should not be interpreted as the total property supply or the number of completed transactions across the entire city. The difference between the typical asking prices of active and newly posted listings should also be interpreted with caution, as the two datasets may differ in terms of property types and product composition.

3.2. Hanoi Market

MOSO's October 2026 report recorded 474 active property listings for sale in Hanoi, with a typical asking price of VND 3.8 billion and a common price range of VND 2.3–7 billion. During the month, 54 new listings were posted, with a typical asking price of VND 7.1 billion. The platform recorded a total of 370 views.

Source: MOSO Hanoi Real Estate Market Report – October 2026.

These figures are specific to the MOSO platform and do not represent the entire Hanoi real estate market. This article does not provide specific price decline percentages by property segment in Hanoi, as there is insufficient verified information regarding the original sources, comparison periods, and calculation methodologies behind those figures.

4. Key Factors Shaping the Real Estate Market

Several factors are worth monitoring as the market enters the final months of the year:

• Access to financing: Borrowing costs and credit conditions affect both homebuyers' purchasing power and developers' cash flow.

• Property price levels: Apartment and land plot prices in many major cities remain high, although Q3 data indicates that secondary market prices generally showed signs of adjustment compared with Q2.

• Project legal status: Legal documentation, construction progress, and planning information should be carefully verified before any transaction.

• Supply composition: The number of properties available on the market does not necessarily mean that supply meets buyers' actual needs and affordability levels.

• Market sentiment: Investors should carefully assess purchase prices, income-generating potential, and holding periods rather than relying solely on expectations of short-term price appreciation.

5. Real Estate Market Outlook for the Final Months of 2026

During the final two months of the year, the market may continue to show diverging trends across locations, property segments, and asset quality. Any recovery in market liquidity will depend on pricing, financing conditions, legal transparency, and actual market demand.

Some previously published market forecasts indicated that approximately 6,000 apartments could be launched in Ho Chi Minh City in Q4 2026. This figure represents a forecast of new supply, not the actual number of apartments launched. If included, it should be accompanied by a clear reference to the original report and the date on which the forecast was made.

In the current market environment, properties with clear legal status, reasonable pricing, and practical residential or income-generating potential are worth considering. Nevertheless, investment performance should be assessed on an asset-by-asset basis rather than inferred from broad market trends.

6. Investment Strategies in an Increasingly Differentiated Market

In an increasingly differentiated market, investors should:

• Verify legal documentation, planning status, and project progress before proceeding with a transaction.

• Compare asking prices with those of similar properties, while distinguishing between asking prices and actual transaction prices.

• Assess debt repayment capacity under different cash flow scenarios and avoid taking on excessive financial leverage.

• Prioritize properties that meet genuine housing demand or have a viable income-generating strategy.

• Avoid making investment decisions based solely on planning rumors, unverified information, or expectations of short-term price appreciation.

Conclusion

The October 2026 real estate market should be assessed based on data from the relevant reporting periods. Q3 figures indicate a decline in transaction volume compared with the previous quarter and an upward trend in inventory at real estate projects, while property prices in many major cities remain high. Listing data from Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi provides additional insight into sales activity on MOSO, but it cannot replace comprehensive statistics on transactions across the entire market.

For homebuyers and investors, property selection should be based on legal transparency, pricing, financial capacity, and actual practical or income-generating value. These criteria are essential for managing risks in a market that has yet to experience a broad-based recovery.