LAND INVESTMENT IN 2026: LOWER PRICES ARE NOT ENOUGH — REAL VALUE IS WHAT MATTERS

1. The Land Market Is Slowing, Requiring More Selective Investment Decisions

In the third quarter of 2026, the market recorded approximately 69,157 land transactions, down 6% from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, apartment and private-house transactions totaled 22,847 units, a decrease of 14%. These figures indicate a slowdown in transaction activity across both segments, as buyers become more cautious before committing their capital.

As liquidity weakens, property assessments can no longer rely solely on asking prices. A plot of land offered at a lower price than in previous periods may still be difficult to resell if it has an unfavorable location, unclear legal status, or limited genuine buyer demand.

In certain locations and segments of the secondary market, price declines of 20–30% year-on-year have been reported. However, this should not be interpreted as a market-wide decline affecting all land plots or every locality. Actual price adjustments depend on location, property characteristics, the original purchase price, and local supply-and-demand conditions.

In this environment, land investment requires a shift away from simply seeking the steepest price reductions toward identifying assets whose underlying value justifies their asking price. Investors should compare plots with similar characteristics and examine reliable transaction data where available, rather than relying solely on advertised prices.

2. Falling Land Prices Do Not Necessarily Mean Properties Are Undervalued

Developments in Da Nang illustrate how land prices can adjust in the short term following a period of substantial growth. The average asking price for land in the former Da Nang area rose from approximately VND 43 million per square meter in the first quarter of 2023 to VND 84 million per square meter in the second quarter of 2026, before declining to around VND 78 million per square meter in the third quarter of 2026.

During the same quarter, asking prices in several areas recorded different rates of decline: approximately 8% in Lien Chieu, 7% in Hoa Vang, 5% in Son Tra, and 3% in Ngu Hanh Son compared with the previous quarter.

These figures demonstrate that market conditions vary across locations. It is also essential to distinguish between asking prices and completed transaction prices: the price advertised by a seller may not be the price a buyer is ultimately willing to pay.

When assessing land investment opportunities, investors should therefore consider both current price levels and long-term price movements. A plot that has declined in price may still be unattractive if its asking price remains significantly higher than its underlying economic value. Conversely, an asset offered at a reasonable price, with clear legal status and genuine market demand, may warrant consideration even if its price reduction is relatively modest.

3. Infrastructure and Actual Demand Determine the Attractiveness of Land Investments

Transport infrastructure can enhance a property's appeal by improving connectivity and supporting regional economic development. However, its impact on land values depends on construction progress, actual accessibility, and the extent to which it generates real demand for property in the surrounding area.

Investors should distinguish between completed infrastructure, projects currently under construction, and initiatives that remain at the planning or announcement stage. Buying land solely in anticipation of a price increase following a project announcement can be risky, particularly when much of the anticipated benefit has already been reflected in the asking price.

Other factors, including the existing residential population, employment opportunities, essential amenities, and development potential, also influence the attractiveness of land. Areas with established economic activity and genuine housing demand provide a more tangible basis for evaluating an investment than locations driven primarily by speculative expectations.

Before making an investment decision, buyers should inspect the area, assess actual transport accessibility, and verify planning and zoning information with the relevant authorities. These steps help distinguish advertised potential from value that can be independently verified.

4. Legal Status, Purchase Price, and Liquidity Should Take Priority

In an increasingly differentiated market, land selection should be based on specific investment criteria rather than price trends alone.

Clear legal status: Investors should verify land-use rights documentation, permitted land use, planning and zoning information, potential disputes, and any restrictions affecting the plot. Land located in an area targeted for future development should not automatically be assumed to be eligible for construction or straightforward resale.

A reasonable purchase price: Investors should compare multiple properties with similar locations, sizes, legal status, and accessibility. Comparisons should rely on verifiable information rather than advertised prices or promoted discount percentages alone.

Practical usability and development potential: Investors should determine the intended purpose of the land, whether for residential construction, long-term use, or resale. The clearer the property's practical use, the stronger the basis for assessing its value, although market risks must still be considered.

Liquidity and resale potential: Before committing capital, investors should identify potential future buyers, estimate the expected holding period, and prepare a financial plan in case market conditions remain subdued. They should avoid relying entirely on a quick resale or taking on debt beyond their repayment capacity.

5. Land Investment in 2026: Focus on Real Value Rather Than Speculative Expectations

Vietnam's land market in 2026 requires greater analytical discipline and more selective investment decisions. Slowing transaction activity and lower asking prices in certain areas do not mean that prices are declining across the entire market, nor do they guarantee that every type of land represents an attractive investment opportunity.

At Victory Group, evaluating land investment opportunities begins with the underlying value of each property: Is its legal status transparent? Is the asking price reasonable? Can its infrastructure advantages be verified? Is there sufficient evidence of genuine demand? These factors should be assessed alongside the investor's financial capacity and intended holding period.

A successful land investment is not simply about purchasing a property at a lower price than before. It is about accurately assessing its underlying value and managing risk throughout the holding period. In a market characterized by increasingly divergent conditions, evidence-based decisions aligned with financial objectives are more important than chasing short-term price appreciation.